CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-06-30T21:45:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-06-30T21:45ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47199/-1
CME Note: Full halo CME currently observed only in GOES CCOR-1 and somewhat blocked by its pylon. Not yet observed in other coronagraphs due to a SOHO LASCO DSN gap between 2026-06-30T20:15Z to 2026-06-30T23:45Z, and STEREO A data gap starting at 2026-06-30T19:23Z. The source is associated with an X1.1 flare (N17W18) observed in SDO AIA 131 from AR 14479 (N16W22), peaking at 2026-06-30T20:50Z. Also observed as a NE-deflected EUV wave and wide swath of dimming in SDO AIA 193/211 centered around N20W05, brightening/flare ribbons along a channel to the NE of the region in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211/304, and a post-eruptive brightening starting around 2026-06-30T21:46Z. | Arrival signature: Shock detected in SOLAR 1, ACE, and IMAP real-time solar wind data. Using the SOLAR 1 data: B_total jumps from ~7 nT to ~11 nT, solar wind speed jumps from 395 km/s to 454 km/s, solar wind density jumps from 2.43 p/cc to 5.82 p/cc, and solar wind temperature jumps from 134k Kelvin to 187k Kelvin. Starting around 2026-07-03T18:00Z, a gradual increase from 8 to 20 nT is observed with a flux rope signature/magnetic field component stabilization following this, and wind speeds correspondingly increase from 450 km/s to 620 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-03T11:17Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.33
Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-02T18:57Z (-6.08h, +6.08h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:
Prediction Method: ELEvo Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-02T18:57Z (+/- 6.08h) Predicted Arrival Speed: 741 +/- 147 km/s CME input parameters: Apex direction (deg): -1.0 longitude, 8.5 latitude Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 41.5 initial CME speed: 1100.5 (+/- 50) km/s initial height: 21.5 R_sun initial time: 2026-06-30T23:57Z drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s time step: 10 min ensemble members: 50kLead Time: 47.18 hour(s)
Difference: 16.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Christian Moestl (ASWO) on 2026-07-01T12:06Z
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